According to Bloomberg’s 2025 Q2 Cryptocurrency Outlook report, the BTC/CAD exchange rate is expected to show a volatile upward trend in July, possibly reaching the resistance level of CAD 98,500 in the middle of the month, representing a 22.3% increase from the expected low point in June. Historical data shows that the average return rate of Bitcoin in July over the past five years has reached 14.7%, while the fluctuation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar will bring an additional 3.2% impact on the exchange rate. The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy report shows that the benchmark interest rate remains at 4.25%, reducing the attractiveness of Canadian dollar assets relative to cryptocurrencies.
From a technical analysis perspective, the 200-day moving average of BTC/CAD is at the CAD 82,300 position, and the Bollinger band width indicates that the volatility remains at an average of 4.7% per day. Derivatives market data shows that the total open interest of Bitcoin futures expiring in July reached 3.7 billion Canadian dollars, with call options accounting for 63.5%. Institutional trading volume at Bitbuy, a major Canadian exchange, shows that the number of block trades (with a single transaction exceeding CAD 500,000) has increased by 42% month-on-month, indicating that institutional investors are actively building positions.
Macroeconomic influencing factors include Canada’s inflation rate remaining at 3.4%, which has made the real interest rate negative and driven investors to shift towards alternative asset allocation. According to data from the Toronto Stock Exchange, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) has a management size exceeding CAD 2.9 billion, with an average daily trading volume of CAD 38 million in July. It is worth noting that the correlation coefficient between the btc cad exchange rate and the WTI crude oil price reaches 0.67. As a major oil-producing country, Canada’s energy price fluctuations will affect the pricing of Bitcoin through the exchange rate channel.
On-chain data analysis shows that the number of Canadian addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC has grown to 127, with the cumulative holding accounting for 5.3% of the total supply. Glassnode detected that the net outflow from the exchange reached 12,000 BTC per day at the end of the quarter, which usually indicates a mentality of holding onto the coin and waiting for it to rise. Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis reported that the volume of Bitcoin purchases by Canadian users through compliant exchanges increased by 37% year-on-year, with Ontario accounting for 43% of the total transaction volume.
In terms of risk factors, it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility that the amendment to Canada’s “Regulatory Framework for Crypto Assets” may be voted on in July. The bill proposes to increase the margin requirement for cryptocurrency exchanges to 25%. Historical volatility data shows that the average intraday fluctuation range of BTC/CAD in summer is 5.8%, and in extreme cases, it may reach 15.2%. Technical indicators show that the RSI value is currently in the neutral to strong range of 62, while the 30-day annualized volatility is expected to remain in the high range of around 68%.