In July 2025, the price trend of Bitcoin against the Canadian dollar showed a fluctuating pattern of rising first and then falling. As of July 21st, the highest point of the month reached 78,400 CAD (July 11th), and the lowest point dropped to 71,200 CAD (July 17th), with an amplitude of 9.2%. The 30-day moving average remained stable at the 74,500 CAD level. Stimulated by the Bank of Canada’s policy of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% at the beginning of the month, the trading volume of “btc cad” soared by 40% in a single day to 2.2 billion Canadian dollars, pushing the price up by 3.5% in the short term. However, the US CPI data unexpectedly rose to 3.8%, causing the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index to drop sharply from 0.6 to 0.2, triggering an outflow of 700 million US dollars of institutional funds and erasing previous gains. On-chain data shows that whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have reduced their holdings by 4.2% this month, increasing market selling pressure.
Changes in the liquidity structure significantly affect price stability. The order book depth of major exchanges shows that there is an average daily liquidity pool of 150 million Canadian dollars within the range of 73,000 to 75,000 CAD. However, a single market sale of 50 million Canadian dollars on July 15th caused a temporary price slippage of 1.8%. The spread of the “btc cad” trading pair on the Canadian local trading platform Bitbuy has widened from 0.1% at the beginning of the month to 0.3%, reflecting an increase in the risk premium of market makers. The data from the derivatives market shows even more pressure: the open interest of CME Bitcoin futures has decreased by 15%, while the proportion of put options in the options market has risen to 58%, suggesting a sharp increase in investors’ hedging demand. A typical case is that on July 12th, the Toronto-based hedge fund Cypher Capital established a bearish position of 120 million Canadian dollars, betting that the volatility index would break through 35%.
Macro policies and economic events constitute key disturbing factors. On July 10th, Canada passed the Digital Asset Custody Act, which requires the reserve ratio of exchanges to be raised from 80% to 95%, increasing compliance costs by 20%. This policy led to the suspension of new user registration on the small and medium-sized platform Newton, and the daily transaction frequency of “btc cad” dropped by 30%. Global events such as the disruption of crude oil supply in Africa pushed the oil price to $95 per barrel, triggering a rise in inflation expectations. The 30-day annualized volatility of Bitcoin soared to 65% (the historical median was 45%). Miner behavior data reveals the source of pressure: the total network computing power has dropped by 5%, partly due to Quebec’s forced mining farms to cut electricity consumption by 20%, which is estimated to cause miners to sell 4,000 BTC (about 300 million Canadian dollars) each month.
Technical indicators and cyclical patterns suggest that the direction selection is imminent. The Bollinger bands have narrowed to their lowest level in six months (with a difference of 4,200 CAD between the upper and lower bands), and volatility compression usually predicts an approaching breakout. Historical cycle analysis shows that July is traditionally a month of negative returns, with an average return rate of -3.5% over the past five years, but it rose by 22% in the same period of 2019. The number of active addresses on the chain remained at 1.2 million per day, and the NVT ratio (network value/transaction volume) dropped from 35 to 28, indicating that the valuation is approaching a reasonable range. Quantitative model predictions show that the probability of breaking through CAD 75,000 at the end of the month is 62%. If this level is successfully held, it is expected to challenge the previous high of CAD 80,000. However, black swan risks such as the passage of the US crypto tax reform bill will increase the probability of a correction to 45%. The current price of “btc cad” is at the key support level of 73,800 CAD. Its gain or loss will determine the final trend pattern for the entire month.